The Lucky Armstrong Socrates Blog

Why this Blog?

I observed laborious and persistent attempts of that Socrates subscriber named Olegrey. He created a very short history of daily and weekly reversals. From that history, he derived his complex "optimal" spreadsheet strategy to trade based on reversals. He got this idea after looking at a short series of daily reversals. On average, these reversals failed when traded for one day, but they succeeded when traded for three days. So he created his three-time-period rule.This experience would have impressed him so much that he spent years refining his strategy further. At some point in this episode, he even published his spreadsheets containing his impressive collection of reversals spanning over a year. But strangely, I never heard of him after that. Here are some links about Olegrey:

 

 

 Olegrey on bitcointalk September 10, 2019

Hi all, been really busy again so I have a few updates.  On 8/30 I didn't notice that the Dow actually elected a bullish reversal.  I bought a position on Monday, but will calculate the percentage as if I had bought on Friday.  The Dow also elected a bullish reversal on 09/05 and 09/06.  I bought DIA for all these elections.  The sell date was today 9/9 because the Dow closed lower than it opened and was still true (I made sure to check that it didn't elect any reversals this time 😋).

Total successful reversal: 8
Total failed reversals: 3
Total gain: 14.10%
Total loss: 5.58%
Total profit: 8.52%

 

Olegrey on reddit Jan 12 2022

I definitely seen what you're talking about when looking at the Dow and the sp500 together. I've been meaning to subscribe to the nasdaq, but held off because I've dreaded recording and analyzing another market. I'm almost finished automating a lot of my spreadsheets, so I'll probably subscribe when I'm finished.

 

So he is still working on his spreadsheets 2 1/2 years later, not ready to trade yet. How inefficient! 

And here are the spreadsheets minus the rules (looks like the same person to me because you can still see the column header "Expected Value in 3 Timeframe rule"):

thebiggh on reddit Dec 02 2020 "My collection of DJIA and SPX daily and weekly reversals"

Hi all,

I've been collecting data on Socrates for over a year now I figured I should share what I've collected so far. Here are links to google docs on daily and weekly DJIA and SPX reversals. Let me know if you have any questions on what any of the columns means (I did some shorthand for some of the headings)

 Same person or not, you can see what the problem is.

 

How we solve the Problem together:

We collect all the reversals we can find and put them all in one place. For everyone to experiment with without delay.

I have already jump-started this and my current count of reversals across multiple markets stands at over 600.

So if you are interested, go to the Resources page and grab them.

But I am not saying that this is in any way a method to be profitable. Because I do not believe in Lucky Numbers. Even though I do my best to collect them for you. In fact my lack of enthusiasm with regards to strategies is what makes my efforts more reliable and more valuable to you (no wishful thinking bias).

How you can accelerate this even further:

I am sure you have collected some screen prints of reversals, forecast arrays and the like. Even emails from Socrates support before the launch date of the pro version on Jan 26, 2019.

Publish them for me to see. and let me know. I grab the screen prints and add the numbers to the database. You will get a new database in short order. That will focus my attention on the symbols of your interest, and lets me purify any data that I already have.

To take advantage of your Socrates Pro subscription the most, you would want to make one snapshot of daily reversals EVERY DAY, one snapshot of  weekly reversals EVERY END OF WEEK, one snapshot per month EVERY END OF MONTH (well I actually don't know whether the new set is released start of new month or end of old), one snapshot per quarter EVERY END OF QUARTER, and one snapshot per year EVERY END OF YEAR. This is the way to get good historical data without gaps between snapshots. Otherwise, important reversals are missed.

 

More to come:

I know there are of course additional interesting resources that I could provide as this develops further. I am already adding forecast arrays to the database. But all this takes time, and I need your input regarding what you are interested in the most.